Moon effect Research: How to Do it? – Penelitian efek bulan: Bagaimana Cara Melakukannya?

Moon effect Research: How to Do it?

  • NOTE THAT NOW I AM MORE ON BEHAVIOURAL CORPORATE FINANCE –

The moon effect research in economics and business field is interesting and intriguing. I met this topic by coincidence. That time I was solely on weather effect reading papers from Cunningham (1979) and Dowling and Lucey (2005). I remember that I prepared my manuscript for Journal of Bioeconomics, opened this journal to see its scope, but ended up with Herbst (2007) paper. It really attracted me.

When I read it, it was related to my PhD research (that time) and I wanted it to be part of my regressor. The issue is what theory to support it? How to measure it? How to rationale it? It was painstaking, but it has to be done.

Theoretical framework

This moon effect research has to borrow psychology theory to explain the relationship. Yes, it is similar like weather effect, disposition effect, loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting, and indeed, even Prospect Theory was grounded in psychology (Right?).

Therefore, I borrow somatic market and Forgas Affect Infusion model to explain the relationship. Based on somatic marker theory, the full moon is the somatic marker of investor’s behaviour. Because gravity of the full moon disturbs investors’ decision-making mechanisms, they make biased decisions (Brahmana et al, 2014). Meanwhile, the Forgas AIM explains that the full moon influences the investor through its gravity, it disturbs the human biological and physiological systems, which then leads to human irrationality. This irrationality produces heuristic bias. Lastly, confusion within the human leads to the biased decisions (Brahmana et al, 2014). You may find other supportive theory to explain the relationship Herbst (2007) or Brahmana et al (2014).

Measures

How to measure it? Good paper is Herbst (2007). In fact, I follow Herbst (2007) in measuring the full moon. How to do it?

  1. You have to have moon calendar. There are many of it. For example:
    1. https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/
    2. https://www.moongiant.com/calendar/
    3. http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phases_calendar.phtml
  2. You have to see when is the full moon? Note that full moon usually occurs for 3-4 days. If it is full moon, you give 1, if it is not full moon? Zero.
  3. Yup, you are right, full moon and not full moon are categorical variable. It is dummy variable.
  4. Then you regress it as independent variable to dependent variable.

So, that is how to measure full moon in this contemporary behavioural research. I encourage you to do it.

Happy researching

 

Penelitian efek bulan: Bagaimana Cara Melakukannya?

 Penelitian efek bulan di bidang ekonomi dan bisnis menarik dan membangkit rasa penasaran. Saya ketemu topik ini sebenarnya secara kebetulan. Saat itu saya hanya membaca penelitian mengenai efek cuaca dari Cunningham (1979) dan Dowling & Lucey (2005). Saya masih ingat bahwa waktu itu saya lagi menyiapkan artikel saya untuk Journal of Bioeconomics. Sebenarnya, pada awalnya hanya ingin liat ruang likngkup jurnal tersebut. Tapi penelitian dari Herbst (2007) seperti magnet dan saya membaca penelitian itu sampai tuntas.

Ketika saya membaca Herbst (2007), ada perasaan bahwa penelitian tersebut sepertinya terkait dengan penelitian PhD saya (waktu itu). Makanya saya ingin variabel efek bulan ini menjadi bagian dari regressor saya. Namun persoalannya adalah teori apa yang mendukungnya? Bagaimana cara mengukurnya? Bagaimana rasionalisasinya? Itu sungguh melelahkan, tetapi memang harus dilakukan.

Kerangka teoritis

Penelitian efek bulan ini sebenarnya meminjam teori psikologi untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara efek bulan dan perilaku. Ya, miriplah sama penelitian tentang efek cuaca, efek disposisi (Dispostion effect), Loss Aversion, diskon hiperbolik (Hyperbolic Discounting), Lagian, Prospect Theory nya Kahneman dan Tvversky itu sebenarnya berdasarkan ilmu psikologi (Bukan?).

Oleh karena itu, saya meminjam teori teori seperti Somatic Market dan model Forgas Affect Infusion untuk menjelaskan hubungan tersebut (Bukan saya sih sebenarnya, tapi penelitian terdahulu. Saya hanya melanjutkan saja). Berdasarkan teori somatic marker, bulan purnama adalah penanda somatik perilaku investor. Karena gravitasi bulan purnama mengganggu mekanisme pengambilan keputusan investor, mereka membuat keputusan yang bias (Brahmana dkk, 2014). Sementara itu, Forgas AIM menjelaskan bahwa bulan purnama mempengaruhi investor melalui gravitasi, itu mengganggu sistem biologis dan fisiologis manusia, yang kemudian menyebabkan irasionalitas manusia. Irasionalitas ini menghasilkan bias heuristik. Terakhir, kebingungan dalam manusia mengarah pada keputusan yang bias (Brahmana et al, 2014). Anda mungkin menemukan teori pendukung lain untuk menjelaskan efek bulan di penelitian Herbst (2007) atau Brahmana dkk (2014).

Pengukuran

Bagaimana cara mengukurnya? Penelitian yang bagus untuk hal ini adalah Herbst (2007). Bahkan sebenarnya, semua penelitian saya mengikuti Herbst (2007) dalam mengukur bulan purnama. Bagaimana cara melakukannya?

  1. Anda harus memiliki kalender bulan. Ada banyak sekali. Sebagai contoh:
    1. https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/phases/
    2. https://www.moongiant.com/calendar/
    3. http://www.moonconnection.com/moon_phases_calendar.phtml
  2. Dalam kalender tersebut, Anda harus melihat kapan bulan purnama-nya? Sebagai catatan, bulan purnama biasanya terjadi selama 3-4 hari. Jika pada hari tersebut adalah bulan purnama, Anda memberi 1, jika bukan bulan purnama? Nol.
  3.  Yap, Anda benar, bulan purnama dan bukan bulan purnama adalah variabel kategori. Ini adalah variabel dummy.
  4. Kemudian Anda ambil variabel dummy tersebut sebagai variabel tidak terikat (independent variable) untuk diuji kepada variabel terikat (dependent variable)

Jadi, itulah cara mengukur bulan purnama dalam penelitian perilaku yang kontemporer ini. Saya mendorong Anda untuk melakukannya.

Selamat meneliti

 

 

Check my papers which are covering this topics:

Berikut adalah penelitian saya yang terkait dengan efek bulan:

 

  1. Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2014). Moon phase effect on investor psychology and stock trading performance. International Journal of Social Economics, 41(3), 182-200. (LINK: https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJSE-04-2012-0134 )
  2. Brahmana, R. K., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2015). Moon Phase as the Cause of Monday Irrationality; Case of Asean Day of the Week Anomaly. The International Journal of Economic Behavior, 4(1), 51-65. (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/doaj/20695756/2014/00000004/00000001/art00005 )
  3. Brahman, R. K., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2014). Moon Effect on Paciic Basin Stock Markets. Indonesian Capital Market Review. (LINK: http://journal.ui.ac.id/index.php/icmr/article/viewArticle/3627 )
  4. Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2016). Debunking the Monday irrationality through the external affection of investors. Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 18(1), 83. (LINK: https://search.informit.com.au/documentSummary;dn=010600604871513;res=IELBUS )
  5. Khresna Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2012). Psychological factors on irrational financial decision making: Case of day-of-the week anomaly. Humanomics, 28(4), 236-257. (LINK: https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/08288661211277317 )

 

References:

  1. Brahmana, R. K., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2012). Weather, investor irrationality and day-of-the-week anomaly: case of Indonesia. Journal of Bioeconomics, 14(2), 129-146.
  2. Brahmana, R., Hooy, C. W., & Ahmad, Z. (2014). Moon phase effect on investor psychology and stock trading performance. International Journal of Social Economics, 41(3), 182-200..
  3. Cunningham, M. R. (1979). Weather, mood, and helping behavior: Quasi experiments with the sunshine samaritan. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(11), 1947.
  4. Dowling, M., & Lucey, B. M. (2005). Weather, biorhythms, beliefs and stock returns—some preliminary Irish evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis, 14(3), 337-355.
  5. Herbst, A. F. (2007). Lunacy in the stock market—What is the evidence?. Journal of Bioeconomics, 9(1), 1-18.

full moon

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